What will the collapse of Atlantic currents mean for the Nordics?
Atlantic currents redistribute heat and cold. If it stops working, the results could be catastrophic. Source: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
New research suggests the risk of a breakdown in North Atlantic currents to be nearly four times higher than previously thought.
The most recent IPCC report said that the collapse of the AMOC was less than 10% likely before 2100. A new study, Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections, examines a longer timeframe and says that the chances are much higher. In the best-case scenario, with lower carbon emissions, a shutdown of the northern AMOC is still 25% likely by 2300. If emissions continue to increase, as they are currently, the likelihood of a shutdown jumps to 70%.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic. It brings warm salty water to Northern Europe from around the Gulf of Mexico (hence the name Gulf Stream) and returns cold less-salty water to the south.
As GHG emissions continue, the planet warms and ice sheets melt, releasing fresh water into the oceans. It is believed that this influx of fresh water will disrupt the entire system, breaking this process which redistributes heat to the North.
There is uncertainty here, because scientists aren’t sure 1) if AMOC will collapse, 2) when it will collapse and 3) what will happen if it does. Generally, current research suggests the Nordics will suffer from the following.
- Overall cooling, particularly in the winter
- More intense cold extremes; winter storms will strengthen
- Larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations
Some of the possible results of these changes include:
- Greater energy needs for heating
- Higher maintenance costs on buildings, vehicles and infrastructure
- More likelihood of power failures
- Higher insurance costs
- More transport disruptions
- Damage to agriculture, aquaculture and forestry industries
Climate change really does have a financial cost to people, businesses and society. Any company doing long-term planning should be taking these increased risks and costs into consideration.
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